Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Before I get into my props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I want to cover.
Josh Allen is +240 to record the most passing yards at Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1,300 to lead the list in receiving yards.
I project Davis closer to +900 to top the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider range of results than most players, so you might say it should be lower.
Davis doesn’t need the volume of other receivers to win this bet given his ability to play big. There’s a scenario where he leads the slate with something like 125 receiving yards going into the last game of the night. If so, you can hedge your bet by betting on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards. If Jefferson goes under his total of 88.5, it’s unlikely anyone else will go over 125. If he passes between 89 and 124 receiving yards, you’ll win both bets.
The bet on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I would say a fair price on Allen is closer to +200.
That said, here are my favorite accessories for all three Thanksgiving games.
Singletary is coming off a season-high 18 rushing attempts last week against the Browns. It was only the third time he had eliminated that total in 10 games.
Against Cleveland, Singletary benefited from Josh Allen recording season lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bounce back with a big enough game in the air and on the ground that he’s chipping away at Singletary’s workload.
Plus, we saw second-round rookie James Cook record his best game of the season, with 11 carries for 86 rushing yards. Singletary dominates the pass and 2-minute work, but the Bills could continue to use Cook on early downs to keep the veteran fresh.
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Another thing that works against Singletary in this market is that he doesn’t get many attempts on third or fourth and runs. The Bills have a rock-solid quarterback where they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, pushing the QB forward.
There are also sneaky guardrails on this prop. If the Lions are able to keep him close, it will force the Bills to adopt a pass-heavy play script.
If the Bills get a huge lead, they tend to wrap Singletary and let Cook dominate the work. Buffalo may also want to finally get Nyheim Hines reps on offense. Any rush attempts it gets will only help this prop.
I’m projecting Singletary for over 12.5 rushing attempts and I’d bet that would go down to -140.
I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating a Lawrence Cager prop during dinner time (on the East Coast).
I think this prop offers sneaky value, as the Giants will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones has just lost his main target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the new go-to receiver, although it’s unclear who will emerge as the No. 2 option.
Cager will continue as the Giants tight end until rookie Daniel Bellinger returns. Cager ran 70% of Jones’ dropbacks last week, and I expect to see similar usage with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have generated the most pressure in the NFL this season. Jones has targeted his tight end 14% of the time in a clean pocket, but that rises to 19% when facing pressure.
Cager is a former wide receiver who converted to a tight end. He is 6 feet 5 inches tall and weighs 220 pounds. He’s not there to block. Also, for what it’s worth, he had the second-most receiving yards among tight ends in the preseason.
I’m projecting Cager for closer to 19.5 receiving yards here and I like his over advantage.
Cousins has struggled under pressure this season. His yards per attempt go from 7.1 with a clean pocket to 5.4 when under pressure. With that, it was no surprise that Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys since Dallas leads the league in pressure ratio.
Cousins faces another tough test against a Patriots defense that ranks second in pressure ratio. To make matters worse, left tackle Christian Darrisaw has already been ruled out.
As a result, I expect Minnesota to have a more conservative, heavyweight game plan against New England.
The Patriots offense could also struggle to score points, reducing the chances of the Cousins entering a game scenario that sees the Vikings go heavy and play from behind.
I’m projecting that closer to 238.5 passing yards.
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